Bad times for the third block

bad times for parts In the Spanish electoral mill. Parties of Non-State Action (PANE), which political science calls nationalists and regionalists, have reported a bump in the polls. He will reach after his historical record in the last of the generals when they got 39 MPs from nine different parties. Now, according to a survey vanguardcan be seven, with 29 deputies. With nuances and differences by party, there is a demographic consensus in placing it around thirty seats. The decline can be explained by the very different political moment that Catalonia is going through and the polarization between the large blocs.

The nationalists, who are the essential part, and the regionalists can be seen as a third heterogeneous bloc of Spanish politics. Not counting the formations that had coalitions at the state level, of the 39 deputies elected in 2019, 35 were nationalists.

This internal formation leads to the great common denominator between them, which is the refusal to eventually install Labor with Vox, which, in this bloc, will only support UPN, if it enters, and perhaps the Canaries coalition. On the contrary, to a completely different degree, there is a tendency to agree with Pedro Sanchez.

The April 2019 elections were an exceptional moment for this bloc. From the breach opened by Miguel Ángel Rivela’s Provincial Party of Cantabria (PRC) in the November Revolution to the regional vote, it was so close to an even more spectacular event than the entry into the existing Teruel Congress. A moderate Islamist party, the Coalition for Melilla (CPM), now sunk after the mail-in voting scandal in May, almost erupted for the first time. Until the recount progressed well, the only MP from this African city was obtained, who ultimately won the People’s Party with fewer than 200 ballots.

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This fusion, above all national, coincides in its almost unanimous “no” to Figo and its closeness to Sanchez

The regional elections in Castilla y León in 2021 were the second blow to the provincial forces. As the Teruel Existe has already done, Syria has already defeated PP and PSOE in its marginalized lands. Under the brand Empty Spain, Soriano’s party, emerging from a social platform also inspired by Teruel, knocked on the doors of Congress, as did the Leonean People’s Union (UPL) with less power. with knowledge he is readingThe autonomy of the Kingdom of León reached 21% in the province in the autonomous regions and won in the capital.

The exacerbation of strong regional inequalities, in favor of the Mediterranean and the all-absorbing Madrid, fueled all these forces. At the same time, Podemos’ decline led to a resurgence of the parties that sprang from it, such as BNG, which managed to return to Congress, and Bildu, which grew into its own group, while the National Party maintained its stable strength. But the main factor in this historical record of non-state labor parties in November 2019 was in Catalonia, just after the Estatut ruling and prisoners topped the lists. With the two MPs entering from the CUP and the eight from Junts, as well as 13 from the ERC, they added 23, an all-time high, as did 6.8% of the vote, nearly two points above the average since 1977.

With the marked decrease in tension after the amnesty, the intensification of independence divisions, and the collapse that occurred in the municipal elections of the ERC, the views were very different. In his questionnaire for vanguard Ipsos points to a sharp decline, the Republicans will lose six seats, the CUP another, and Guntes can only raise one seat and will be the first power. In other polls, different distributions are shown, especially in the battle between ERC and Junts, but with some coincidence in estimating the total of 17 deputies, which is equal to the historical average.

After 37 years in Congress, initially as the Canary Islands’ independent groups, and since 1993 as the Canary Islands Coalition (CC), this force is threatened with exclusion. According to polls, he appears frequently with or without his seat in the air. Teruel would also be threatened, it is there, the Union of Nations of Pueblo Navarro (UPN) is considered expendable, while after the fall of Revilla, the PRC did not even appear. In any case, the precautions which experience advises against suffrage should generally be doubled in the case of these powers.

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The polarization between the two major blocs and the crisis of the independence movement would explain the setback

During the current democratic stage, there were noticeable fluctuations in the strength of the national and regional parties, in proportion to their size: from 24 deputies in 1977 and 2008 to 38 deputies in 2011 and 39 in 2019, while the percentage of the vote ranged between 6.9% and 11.4%. In the era of blocks, the minimum occurred in 2016, just when someone approached the absolute majority, which can be both cause and effect.

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