All the private polls released during the 23J election campaign agreed that the People’s Party would win broadly in 23J and could even reach an outright majority with Vox.
All, except for the Center for Social Research run by José Félix Tezanos, have come under heavy criticism for being an exception – it gave victory to PSOE to Pedro Sánchez, albeit with very loose prongs. Finally, the CIS was the closest to it General election results for the two major partiesalthough it also missed the Vox score and especially the Sumar score.
“We assume a deviation of our expectations on this election night. Congratulations to the institutes that were able to see the current scenario,” one of the companies in charge wrote on Twitter.
Popular Party leader Alberto Núñez Figo, Promised during the campaign That if I judge the first act will be the dismissal of the CIS president. “There will be no Tizano in my government and his dismissal will be the first in the cabinet,” Figo said.
The latest poll published by the Center for Social Research (CIS) on July 17 forecast a victory for PSOE with 32% support compared to 30% for PP. With 99.73% of the vote counted, his estimate of the People’s Party would have fallen short by three percentage points and that of the Socialist Workers’ Party by one point.
By adding the highest branching of both blocs, PP and Vox each added 169 seats according to the CIS – the same number got 23J – but the sum of the left bloc of PSOE and Sumar was very far away, which reached 185 MPs, while remaining at 153 parliamentarians.
The “blitz” CIS poll assigned Somar third place with 14% of the vote compared to the 12.31% achieved by Yolanda Diaz’s last formation. In this line, Vox as the third force achieved 12.39% of the support, two points behind the CIS estimates of Thezanos, making it the fourth force.
As for the next powers in terms of vote count, the CIS estimated the vote to rise by 0.4% which ultimately was a decrease of 1.7%. As for Junts and Bildu, it was right to increase Junts x Cat, which posted results of 1.6%, but failed to predict a worse result than 2019 for Bildu, which grew by 0.22%, Efe reported.
Likewise, the CUP was excluded from Congress when CIS data ensured it would be preserved and the PNV lost 0.3% of support against estimates that predicted a result equal to that of the previous election.
Finally, Coalición Canaria held on despite the 0.1% increase that Tezanos projected; Pacma posted a decline of 0.27%, while the CIS expected a decline of 0.5%. CIS was right with UPN, which achieved similar results in 2019 with 0.21% of the vote.