Alberto Nunez Figo (People’s Party) will win Sunday’s elections in votes and seats, but the prime minister, Pedro Sanchez, is fighting back better than expected and the verdict is still up in the air, with more options for the PS leader, who has a broader scope to agree on. Neither the bloc on the right (PP-Vox) nor the bloc on the left (PSOE, Sumar and their usual allies) reach an absolute majority.
By counting 97% of the votes, the party won 122 deputies, more than two deputies in the previous elections, while the People’s Party, which opinion polls came close to achieving an absolute majority with Vox, remained at 136, which is a good result that represents an increase of 47 seats, but it is insufficient given the expectations of the public and all polls and private polls.
With the data from the audit, Feijóo has not reached an absolute majority with Vox (33 seats) and the bloc on the right, with UPN (1), will remain at 170 deputies, six of the 176 representing an absolute majority.
The sum of PSOE and Sumar, which gets 31 deputies, is still far from an absolute majority, 153 seats, not enough with its usual partners: ERC (7), EH Bildu (6) and PNV (5), BNG (1). Their total remained 172 deputies, four away from the absolute majority.
Relevant at this point are the seven Juntex Catalunya deputies who, despite losing a seat and about 140,000 votes, could cash in an absolute majority in favor of Sanchez, but the demands raised by the Puigdemont deputies during the campaign – a referendum agreed with the government – and repeatedly rejected by the government, make this possibility almost impossible.
Another possibility to form a government is for the PNV and the Canary Islands coalition to give their support to Vigo, but they will demand, especially the nationalists, that Vox not enter the executive branch and agree to an affirmative vote to install the leader of the People’s Party, an option that does not bear many signs of prosperity either.
The bittersweet victory of the People’s Party is quantitatively weak (by less than 200,000 votes over the PSOE), although it is regionally indisputable because it prevails in all the autonomous communities except Catalonia and Navarra, where the Socialists win, and in Extremadura, Cantabria and La Rioja, where there is a parity between the PSOE and the People’s Party. In the Basque Country, there was a three-way relationship between the Socialists, the PNV and EH Bildu.