And next Sunday’s elections come in the form of a second attack in the Basque Country after the municipal and regional elections on May 28. Logically speaking, the main focus of interest for the Basques has to do with what is happening today in Spain as a whole, which will represent the social and political context for the years to come. In Basque Key, however, there will be a new battle between PNV and EH Bildu, who will fight for victory in votes and seats in the Basque Country, although not forgetting the Socialist Workers Party which, according to opinion polls, could achieve its best result in Euskadi in the general elections since 2008.
This second round of fighting between Basque nationalists and independents comes after, in May, Appertzal’s coalition brought the PNV’s hegemony under control. The appointment has also been presented as a precursor to a third offensive that will take place next spring, with elections for the Basque Parliament Lehendakari likely to coincide with the European elections on 9 June. There is great interest to know in what terms this conflict exists, to what extent the PNV is affected and how far EH Bildu can continue to grow or has already reached its electoral ceiling.
Looking at the May election, we can conclude that PNV is showing wear and tear. Within four years, he had gone from his electoral ceiling in municipal elections, which was over 408,000 votes, to a number very close to the minimum in local elections, with 86,000 less support. 23-J does not arrive, in this sense, at the best moment for government officials , who face an ill-fated appointment as generals, without having time to reflect on their first electoral setback in a long time. PNV has managed, however, to carry out a very judicious campaign, giving full importance to the solvency of its man in Madrid, Aitor Esteban.
Giltzales gave full credit to Aitor Esteban and Albertzales, to Oscar Matot.
The two big doubts are whether government officials They will be able to rally their constituents, after acknowledging that they have suffered abstention in May, and secondly, knowing how much a double vote can damage them. In the 2015-2016 electoral cycle, Basque double voting, a term used to explain how voters vote differently depending on the election, led PNV and EH Bildu to their electoral soil, in favor of parties at the state level. This trend has decreased significantly in the 2019-2020 cycle, and we’ll have to see what happens today.
An analysis by Silván & Miracle based on the partial data of the EiTB Focus survey, the largest sample in the Basque Country, indicates that 11% of those who voted for PNV in May can now bet on the Socialists. In this lies the great risk of interest government officials . His first goal today is to get five deputies and secure his group in Congress. The second was to overtake EH Bildu in votes and seats.
The Albertzal Alliance, for its part, is growing due to its good results in May and is looking for a second check on PNV. His election campaign was more choral than campaigning government officials , although they chose to feature Oscar Matut. Silván & Miracle’s analysis did not detect a noteworthy double vote on EH Bildu’s account, although it does see a few vote conversions. Polls give them five seats in the Euskadi district, as does the PNV party. However, EH Bildu will get another seat in Navarra, while Geroa Bai, a coalition the PNV party is in, will not get representation. This final picture will favor the coalition in its struggle with the PNP, although the readings made tonight will in any case be contingent on what happens in Spain as a whole.
Double voting misses happening, but 11% of PNV voters in May could bet on PSOE
The formation of a coalition government for PP-Vox would leave the representatives of PNV and EH Bildu in Madrid out of the game, while at the same time it could emphasize coexistence in the Basque Country and would radicalize positions on the national issue. At the corresponding level, the final continuity of the executive alliance, in this case PSOE-Sumar, would once again guarantee the leading role in Madrid for the main Basque forces. In between, it remains to be seen what will happen if PP scores exceptionally well and needs support government officials . This scenario could allow the PNV to appear as the party that blocked the far right from entering the government. And it is not so little.