The Voice of Spain and Watching Europe. Watch more carefully than ever, because this time the Spanish vote could have very direct consequences in European politics.
When Spain voted for the first time in 1977 after a long period of dictatorship, Europe also watched closely.. He observed, supervised and financed some of the political choices. Hispanic society seemed slight at that time. For decades, the dictatorship has created the myth of a wild and immature people, deeply individualistic and passionate about democracy. Many people came to believe that. Forty-six years later, the situation is completely different.
Almost half a century later, General elections in Spain, a mature democracy, will set the tone for European politics in the coming months. Europe Europe — foreign ministries, select opinion circles, guidebooks and intelligence services — are watching Spain closely to see which way the winds might blow on the day the composition of the future European Commission must be negotiated, almost a year from now. In June 2024, the new European Parliament will be voted on.
Pedro Sanchez is playing the presidency and leadership today. Núñez Viejo, The Lonely Bullet
A powerful wave of conservatism has swept the continent since the outbreak of the Ukrainian war. With the exception of Denmark and the sole case of Malta, no social democratic or labor party has been able to win legislative elections since Russian forces crossed the Ukrainian border on February 24, 2022. The trend has been the opposite: the rise of more or less traditional conservative forces, allied for the first time with the far right. This has led to parliamentary support pacts (Sweden), coalition governments between several right-wingers (Italy and Finland), far-right majorities (Hungary), and net victories for the traditional right (Greece) and in anarchic settings (Bulgaria). There is another important exception: the revival of Europeanism in tiny Slovenia by a movement that calls itself environmental and liberal.
It is necessary to know which square Spain will be placed in tonight. There are different possibilities. Let’s go see them.
a) A clear victory for the traditional right, by an absolute majority or close to it, Greek-style. Winks at the Basque nationalist party and the convergent genie, which is not only being revived in Catalonia. Vox failed. The far right will become an auxiliary force at the local and regional level. Alberto Nunez Figosuddenly turned into Kyriakos Mitsotakis. resignation Pedro Sanchez. Deep depression in the PSOE and possibly in Sumar if the results are far from what the polls promised. A protracted crisis on the left.
B) An insufficient victory for the traditional right, and a poor result for the Socialist Workers Party. Strong internal and external pressure on the Socialist Party to facilitate the formation of a PP minority government prevents Vox from entering the executive power. Scenario verbally Felipe Gonzalez. The Great Illusion of Núñez Feijóo Jose Maria Aznar Which may also happen in the previous scenario: to capture the Socialist Workers Party, make it a prisoner, and turn it into an auxiliary force for the conservative bloc that would oscillate between social accord with the extreme right and state pacts with destructive socialism and remorseful of his last twenty years, since then Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero He won the disastrous elections in March 2004, approved a new law for Catalonia and negotiated an end to ETA.
c) an insufficient victory for the traditional right committed to a coalition deal with Vox, With good results from PSOE. These good results, which we can estimate from 110 deputies, will keep Pedro Sanchez at the helm of the party and await the European elections in June 2024, which will have great political importance. Sanchez will not be inclined at first to grant abstentions to a minority government of the People’s Party, which, in the end, can always turn to Vox. But the socialist leader must pay attention to the European coordinates. The entry of the far right into the Spanish government is deeply troubling in Paris and Berlin, while it is highly desirable in Rome. PSOE may request programmatic and institutional counterparts pending the European elections in June 2024.
Dr) PP and Vox fail to achieve an absolute majority, but forming an alternative majority around the PSOE needs more parliamentary support than in 2019, and depends on the deputies that Junts per Catalunya can get. Carlos Puigdemont Announced already from Brussels He does not intend to favor Sanchez’s inauguration. If reconsidered, it would likely set unsustainable terms for PSOE. This would then lead to a stalemate that could lead to a repeat election.
Repeat elections have been the pattern of Spanish politics for the past eight years: in 2015/16 and again in 2019. Núñez Feijóo’s failure could open an immediate leadership crisis in the PP. Sánchez must then choose to conduct risky negotiations with Puigdemont, to repeat the elections, or to try to agree on a coordination government, perhaps headed by a manager, pending the European elections in June 2024. Repeat the general elections alongside the European elections. Let us remember that the Spanish constitution does not stipulate that a presidential candidate must be a deputy.
H) PSOE and Sumar achieved a similar result to their November 2019 results And they can reissue the formula of the past three years, leaving the deputies on the sidelines Carlists. If this is the result, then tonight there will be heart attacks in the Madrid club.
These scenarios allow many nuances and can count on a dance of about twenty seats. Mature Voices of Spain and Watching Europe.