None of the polls could tell what was going on in this general election. The scenarios that were covered constituted a victory for the People’s Party. Nobody seems to have any doubts about this point. The only unknown that has been clarified seems to focus on whether the People’s Party needs to integrate Vox into Spain’s government. Hence the president’s calls for a helpful vote that Santiago Abascal made ugly this Sunday. But none of this was expected. Under the radar, it seemed, were a number of voters that no one was registering and would render the People’s Party government useless. How ridiculous are those words Alberto Núñez Figo uttered today at the start of the campaign when he unabashedly outlined his follow-up strategy to secure his inaugural session with PSOE refrains: ““I will call the PSOE barons,” he said.
The Spanish political map has been described for many years as an example of imperfect bipartisanship. PP and PSOE were the two big parties with the power to rule the country on their own or with the support of the classical nationalist parties (PNV and CiU). Those were the times when the Catalan José María Aznar spoke in private. He is remembered by those who amassed a few springs, but younger voters have already known a more fragmented House of Representatives where the possibility of governing requires a more sophisticated parliamentary calculation. Recent election nights have already allowed us to talk about winners and losers. But the analysis hangover continued for weeks until the math made a successful inaugural session possible. And to this it is necessary to add the 176 deputies imposed by the constitution. The J23 elections will leave us with weeks of debate. Parliamentary democracy, not false narratives about the most voted list, is what it has.
But let’s go back to the data that the number of Sundays shows. The People’s Party won the elections. He won votes and seats. He has regained the position of the first political force that he lost in 2015. The People’s Party is the party that received the most votes. In fact, the more than 130 seats won on Sunday are well short of the 89 seats Pablo Casado won after hitting a low in 2019. Alberto Núñez Fijo regained more than 2,300,000 votes, but the seats won do not meet his expectations, nor do they come close to the majority that Núñez Fijo himself claimed in the campaign to govern without charges being brought against him. The People’s Party also did not achieve one of the other goals it set for this election. In fact, the seats obtained do not exceed those obtained by PSOE and Sumar. Worst of all, the results make a People’s Party government virtually impossible. A circumstance that may complicate the political future of the person who heads the main right-wing party today. It is no exaggeration to say, with all this, that so many seats had never been used for so little before.
The PSOE has improved results in votes and seats compared to the 2019 elections. Pedro Sánchez regained more than 730,000 votes. It is not the most voted political force, but its distance from the People’s Party, barely 1%, is irrelevant to anyone. Curiously, polls during the campaign didn’t catch either. Political analyzes will follow one another in the coming days based on a quieter study of the data, but there are some clues that do not go unnoticed. I will mention only two. the first: Pedro Sánchez’s strategy of calling general elections after the results of the municipal and provincial elections proved successful. The second: the governmental agreements between the PP and Vox parties in the autonomous regions and municipalities have clearly damaged the expectations of the government of Alberto Núñez Viejo, energizing the electorate of the left which has thus stopped a right-wing government against the far-right.
However, the election results were particularly bad for Vox. The 52 seats currently held by the far-right in the Chamber of Deputies have been reduced to 33 and the dream of being part of Spain’s government will not be possible, even if it maintains its third position as a political force. How will PP now relate to Vox? It is a question that does not have an easy answer to the extent that the Palestinian People’s Party is trapped with this alliance because of its agreements in self-rule communities and municipalities.
As far as Sumar is concerned, it is clear that the political force led by Yolanda Diaz did not get the electoral result it might have been looking for, but the fact that its seats could help the Socialist Workers Party form a majority in the government allows it to offer them as a guarantee of a progress government. The challenge for Sumar now is to establish itself as a party and to finish stitching the wounds in a highly pluralistic political space with a structure that is still not very solid.
The setback suffered by Ezqueira Republica is impressive. This is not the case of Junts per Cataluña, which resists and becomes relevant to a potential investment by Pedro Sánchez. The result obtained by Bildew, who advanced in votes and seats, did not go unnoticed. He overtook, for the first time, the PNV which could no longer turn a profit which so far meant a monopoly on the Basque agenda in Madrid. However, both will continue to be relevant to the inauguration session of a government that, regardless of the difficulties, will be able to continue being a progressive government. We’ll see.
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