The Catalan Problem for the People’s Party, by Jaume V. Aroca

The classic tenet of electoral theory in Spain holds that you cannot get to Moncloa without relying on the majority of Catalans and Andalusians. Pure arithmetic: Without the wind in favor of the two most populous communities—both adding up to 11.8 million votes, a quarter of the electoral count—no success would come.

Since the Andalusians left behind the years of socialist domination, the People’s Party began to reconsider this thesis. He thought it was possible to achieve a good result by ignoring the complex Catalan puzzle. Hold on to what you are in elections Feijóo called the influence of Andalusia. The southern vote became the basis of the new conservative Spanish majority. That was the idea.

The People’s Party must wonder why it retained Theudadanos’ votes
In all of Spain except Catalonia

no. It doesn’t work that way. Didn’t work Sunday night. The PS lost four deputies in Andalusia, in fact, but largely regained them in Catalonia where the PSC contributed 19 seats, seven more than in the 2019 elections. It not only made up for the defeat in Andalusia, but provided enough advantage for Pedro Sánchez to come out on the Ferraz Street stage to say the party’s results have improved. In Catalonia, the trench was dug that would prevent Figo from taking over as prime minister.

The question is whether someone will read these results correctly on Genoa Street. If you are wondering why, while in the rest of Spain Ciudadanos votes ended up in PP’s income statement, in Catalonia these votes are in the PSC bag. PP must take into account how useful it is in Catalonia. Because as long as this does not happen, a part of the Catalan electorate who is not worried about the independence movement will continue to have the impression that their project does not benefit them.