The demographic bubble burst by overestimating the right turn

On July 2, GAD3 President Narcisco Michavila enjoyed the success of the municipal and regional governments on Twitter. He claimed that he only veered in Madrid and Barcelona and failed completely in Ourense. Machiavelli, who called the generals “much easier”, defended the prevailing trend that PP and Vox would add an absolute majority. It obviously failed. The demographic bubble has burst in recent weeks. On the other hand, the thesis that another firm maintains almost alone, 40 dB, which asserts that the right will not receive an absolute majority, was correct. The Center for Social Research also slipped with majorities in PSOE and Sumar, although in the latest poll it was one of the least wrong.

The small sample, often consisting of 1,000 interviews or not much more, with which polls are conducted throughout Spain in elections that actually include 52 independents, one of the loyal provinces, is a fundamental flaw. In the campaign, when tracking, daily surveys, in major companies, samples are growing exponentially. However, GAD3’s 801 interviews on Monday last week accounted for 154 interviews per debut.

40 dB had the lowest deviation on the last legal day, followed by CIS and compared with GAD3 and Sigma Dos

Nor was there in the massive wave of polls that led the famous Núñez Feijóo to Moncloa at the hands of Ultra Santiago Abascal, an adequate assessment of the course of the Spanish elections, important for the kitchen, calculating the behavior of those who do not know or do not answer.

With a certain demoscopic adamantium, there was amnesia about the resounding error in assigning the majority to PP and Ciudadanos in 2015. It did not take into account that at most one bloc fell within seven of the 176-seat barrier, the one on the right in 2016, with 46% of the vote, which set the criterion for an absolute majority perhaps at 47%. This is a ratio that has never been exceeded by the Right Bloc in Spain, except in 2011 if UPyD is included in it. There are signs of a rightward shift in society, but not with the intensity necessary to break the historical majority of the center-left and nationalist group.

Previously, the People’s Party could have an absolute majority even at 42%, but now more is needed. In order to fulfill the expectation, a very low participation was required which was not announced. In the end, the People’s Party and Vox added 45.4%, which is a repeat of 169 MPs for 2016, seven-tenths less. Thus it turns out that there is no precise threshold for the dear absolute majority.

Another essential component of what might be called a demographic consensus is confluence, especially towards the end of the majority of predictions. There, Narciso Machiavelli acted in the vanguard. Yesterday he attributed the errors to not properly evaluating Fear of Vox.

Of course, the absurd ban on publishing opinion polls six days in advance carries weight. In this campaign last week there was an involuntary, yet decisive effort by Feijóo to mobilize the Progressives, with a more than improved performance.

However, on Sunday in its Mediaset poll, GAD3 returned to give an outright majority to the right, with 181 seats. Sigma2 gave them 173 and Metroscopia, 177. The 40dB from last week, which was not published, continues the opposite thesis. This company is managed by Belén Barreiro, who works for her Country and laSer, were the best performers by keeping PP and Vox below 176 seats. And if the percentage of votes in opinion polls on the last legal day of publication, Monday 17, is analyzed, then it has the best record, with a deviation of 5.6 points. The CIS flash scan was 5.9, compared to 8.5 for GAD3 and 8.6 for Sigma2. That Ipsos for vanguarddated July 9, with a deviation of 6.8.

As Enrique Juliana confirms, Spain currently has a demographic bubble that has burst loudly.