The Eurozone started 2023 in recession and not in recession, after a statistical review

A worker at a steel plant in Germany in November 2022.Wolfgang Ratte (Reuters)

Economists have warned that whether or not the eurozone enters a recession between the end of last year and the beginning of this year will be determined by the tenth. What they didn’t know was that it would require several final image They are going to adjust the initial score and even the median. The data released by Eurostat on Thursday They review the last publication, with a change in the result: The European Statistical Office calculates that in the first quarter of the year the eurozone economy was in recession: it did not grow or decline, remaining at 0%. Presumably there was no recession, As inferred from a previous review.

To reach this conclusion, another correction in previously disclosed data was required. Although this revision corresponds to the previous year’s fourth quarter, which at first appeared to be positive in tenths and then negative (-0.1%), a figure was maintained on Friday.

Technical recession refers to a decline in activity for two consecutive quarters. That’s what happened with the estimated numbers last June, which have now been corrected in light of more consolidated numbers. Given the precarious nature of the data and the fact that recessions are occurring at a tenth rate higher or lower, it seems reasonable to think that it is still too early to tell if there will be a slight recession between the last quarter of 2022 and whether the first of 2023.

What can be said is that energy crisis And its effect on prices as a whole halted a strong exit from the recession brought on by the pandemic. The economy did not derail, but stagnated.

However, its social and economic impact was less than expected. The implementation of extraordinary measures that will help households and businesses deal with their energy bill has mitigated the impact. In addition, the labor markets have been very resilient and, in fact, the unemployment rate in the eurozone and in the European Union as a whole is at historically low numbers.

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