The Peace and Security Council hopes to bring the independence movement out of its hegemony

The elections of 23 J in Catalonia will show, in all likelihood, according to opinion polls, the victory of the PSC.Which therefore aspires to crown the successful electoral cycle that began with the regional elections in February 2021 and continued with the municipal elections last May. Merichel Pate, his candidate for Barcelona, ​​​​confirms that his goal is “destruction”, and the big question is to know how much difference it will make a surprise To Esquerra, winner of the general elections in November 2019 with 13 seats, and the gap that will remove the People’s Party (now it is 10 deputies). Fallen by the results of the 28-M, the Catalan Socialists have centralized themselves and expanded their institutional strength thanks to the chronic and almost irreversible split from the independence movement. in that separatist bloc Precedence is at stake The result will also be read in terms of supporting the path of open dialogue between the central government and the Equity and Reconciliation Council. There is also the shadow of abstention, promoted as a protest by the more fundamental sectors of separatism.

Looking at the predominantly blue map that emerged after 28-M in the whole of Spain, Catalonia is one of the few societies where socialism, which has also absorbed many citizen voters, is in a position to win this 23-J. Bate conveyed the message that Pedro Sanchez risked it for Catalonia and that this election It’s just a dilemma between him and the dark Spain that links Alberto Núñez Figo and Santiago Abascal. The PSOE program avoids everything associated with the sovereign conflict: the table of dialogue and possible consultation on its agreements, which has irritated some barons so much, or the prospect of renewing the statute. The Catalan Socialists, who are completely in sync, have not even presented the electoral manifesto that they usually promote in general elections and which includes their proposals in a Catalan key.

PSC likes to remember that they were completely loyal to Sanchez with the slogan “La la la”, which he first announced at a rally in Gava (Barcelona) for not investing Mariano Rajoy in October 2016 and that now they will not hesitate to take on Figo. “Something else is impossible,” they say despite the hints of the ERC, which sees the most plausible scenario that after the victory of the People’s Party, economic power pressures the Socialists to allow Figo to form a government without having to turn to Vox, avoiding both the uncertainty of the blockade and the entry of the far-right formation in La Moncloa.

The euphoria of the Catalan socialists at these elections is directly proportional to the nerves of the pro-independence parties. In the November 2019 general election, they added 23 out of the 48 seats held by the four Catalan districts in Congress, and it is very likely that they did not reach those numbers. In the municipal elections, the ERC put a face to the disaster suffered by that bloc and lost more than 300,000 votes compared to the local elections in May 2019. The CUP also lost the support and timid improvement of Junts – 6,000 ballots -, which prevailed in the secession, lending proportionally to the fact that four years ago it had its worst historical result. Concerned about the layoffs, the two parties wanted to make an agreement and even the head of Barcelona’s ERC roster, Gabriel Ruffian, He began the preliminary campaign by inviting his former partners to agree on the “high” price to be asked for Sanchez If their votes are necessary so he can repeat at La Moncloa.

Somar candidate, Aina Vidal, salutes Congressional Equity and Reconciliation Commission Spokesperson Gabriel Ruffian during the Pride Parade in Barcelona, ​​on the 15th of this month.
Marta Perez (EFE)

But neither the CUP nor the Junts want to get into this game and continue, in fact, to make an adjustment to all the results of the dialogue path, although no reasonable Plan B has been announced. Those of Carles Puigdemont in the campaign chose to show their disapproval of the way ERC handled this option. His refusal to Sanchez will only break him if the competition for referendums is moved to Catalonia. The Republicans set three conditions for approval of Sanchez: ending the so-called fiscal deficit, transferring Catalan Cercanías and maintaining the dialogue table on the political conflict. According to the result on Sunday, many will be able to start showing the clock on Per Aragon to put an end to his minority government.

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Junts, led by Miriam Nogueiras, aspire to beat the ERC at the very least, an outcome they interpret as a failure of dialogue that, Republicans recall, hitherto allowed Junts leaders like Jordi Turull to pardon. But on its way to eroding the rival, the party led by Puigdemont has given wings to some of theses it can now oppose and is, for now, the easiest prey to calls for independents to stay home on Sunday. Although the rules of the Catalan National Assembly (ANC) have halted the leadership abstention proposal, the idea still permeates social networks and into the most core circles of the independence movement. The Independence Bloc was only brought out of inactivity by the materialization of Vox’s threats in the places it already rules, such as Unsubscribe from five Catalan-language magazines at Burriana Town Hall (Castellón).

Sumar tampering with the referendum

If the PSC aligns with Sanchez, the commons do the same with Yolanda Diaz, in defending all policies to improve pensions, minimum wages, labor reform and social laws in favor of equality. Diaz rejects the referendum and the public says they are keeping it. Therefore, they agree with two programs. Candidate Aina Vidal calls for dialogue and amnesty Discord repair. His idea is to put the referendum on the horizon and in no way be a tool of “obstruction”.

Catalonia 10-N election results for 2019

These are the results of the 10-N election in 2019.

Catalonia contributes 48 seats out of 350 in Congress:

Republicans from the left: 13 seats; 874,859 votes (22.73%).

PSC: 12 seats; 794,666 votes (20.64%)

Together: 8 seats 530,225 votes (13.77%)

PP: 2 seats; 287,714 votes (7.47%)

Cup: 2 seats, 246,971 votes (6.42%)

Vox: 2 seats 243,640 votes (6.33%)

Nationals: 2 seats; 217,935 votes (5.66%)

The competition for the Commons in this campaign had painful overtones, with a resignation as unexpected as it was elegant by Jaume Asens and a commitment to Vidal and the people very close to Ada Colau on the list. The former Barcelona mayor attended no fewer than five Soumar campaign events, including the start of the campaign in La Coruña, and the closing on Friday in Madrid. After stopping at seven seats, their goal is to break this ceiling and draw an upward curve after slowing down their results in the municipal elections, in which they ran for the first time with Bodem. His big fear is that the advantageous vote will go to the PSC.

The great unknown is focused on the bench on the right. PP is now a value on the rise and trust expires, From the hand of Nacho Martin Blanco, Ciudadanos exporter until two months ago, from two seats to eight seats. A decade later shocking In Catalonia, PP hopes to be a containment dam and stop Vox (also with two) that once again flirt with the application of Article 155 of the Constitution and the intervention of autonomy. The latter doubt is limited to two parties fighting to continue in Congress that are opposing poles within the sovereign magma: CUP, which demands a referendum to invest Sanchez, and Espai CiU, the PDeCAT platform, led by Roger Montagnola, which is open to negotiation with PP as long as it does not agree with Vox.

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