The pro-independence stage of fear

Esquerra Republicana lost 43% of the votes collected in 2019 on Sunday and Junts per Catalunya 26%. The losses were greatest in the CUP which had lost 60% of its support on the roadside, and was left without representation in Congress. All of this is dismal results for a pro-independence movement that one day wanted to raise the banner above 50% in regional elections and now barely reaches 27% of the vote in Congress. No matter where you look, the result is bad. However, by parliamentary arithmetic, The independence movement did not play such a major role in forming a parliamentary majority.

In both Esquerra and Junts, the general feeling was that the constant battles between the two former partners in the Catalan government had taken their toll. The outright fantasy of independence no longer strains its grammar. Having built a rhetoric based on the independence movement’s unity of action to achieve milestones such as the referendum, the bases now see that not only have none of the promised goals been achieved, but that both sides have only succeeded in fighting over crumbs of autonomy. Thus, the layoffs of pro-independence voters are clearly visible with almost a million separatist voters choosing on Sunday to abstain or vote directly for the PSC to stop the far right.

The second feeling that permeated the independence movement, especially in the Egyptian Red Crescent, is that the large number of pacts with the socialists not only failed to advance towards independence, but also failed to achieve it. He helped PSC position itself at the center of the Catalan political board. Unfortunately for the PSOE, in the ranks of the supporters of independence there are large-scale processes such as amnesty for those convicted of war crimes. practical.

for this reason, Now a negotiating dynamic is opening up that seems slow. From the outset, they all advocated first reaching a minimum agreement between the Independents to later negotiate with the SWP. No one wants to sit alone at the negotiating table with a powerful party like the Socialist Party for fear that they will profit from the profits of a final agreement on their own. Any agreement that the ERC can reach on its own will be disqualified by Junts and the same will happen if it is reached by Carles Puigdemont’s party. And it would be more complicated if these negotiations had to be conducted in parallel with news from the judicial field such as the petition filed by the Attorney General’s Office of the Supreme Court on Monday to arrest the former chief of the general via an international arrest warrant.

The starting point of the ERC is negotiating the maintenance of the dialogue table, measures against the Catalan “fiscal deficit” and the transfer to the Generalitat of Cercanías. Junts is less specific, but he is putting on the table to negotiate the transfer of power to organize the referendums, although he has not yet specified to what extent it will be necessary or not to sit down and discuss their requests regarding the said vote and the so-called “amnesty”. In the coming weeks, we should expect plenty of pro-independence gestures from within and little embodiment from the outside. Before starting to negotiate seriously with the SWP, the separatists have to settle scores in their own space. Little by little.

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