The complex outcome of the 23J elections It will impose several weeks of negotiations to find out the possibilities of the candidates for the presidency of the House of Representatives. First, the first hurdle must be resolved, which can provide some clues about the meaning of future alliances for the Fifteenth Legislative Council. On August 17, at ten o’clock in the morning, the constitution session of the Cortes of the Congress will begin, at which the formation of the Chamber of Deputies should proceed: first by an absolute majority or, if this is not possible, by a second vote by a simple majority. The PSOE, which now possesses this representation of the third power of the state, intends to maintain this position and for this it will need to concede one of the nine positions on the Board of Directors that it can achieve for itself. These distributions could be a preview of what is expected to be repeated in a hypothetical inauguration vote, for which no date has been set yet.
Candidates for representatives of this legislative body have until this Friday to submit appeals about some kind of irregularity that occurred in last Sunday’s elections, and starting next Monday, they will be able to start accrediting themselves from their congressional constituencies. The next date on your calendar will be, officially, the Constitution Session of the Cortes, held on August 17th. On that day, there will be three different votes, which will provide clues as to where the legislature can develop. To choose the presidency of Congress, there will be a first single vote that requires an absolute majority of the members of the House of Representatives. If no applicant receives that majority, the election will be repeated between the two proposals with the most support so that the one with the most votes is elected.
The PSOE will want to maintain this position, the one guiding the most relevant sessions held so far by the Catalan socialist Meritxell Batet. If the SWP wins the vote, it means that it has agreed to an agreement with the other formations which, in addition, will extend to the next two votes. First, for the four Vice-Presidents, who are to be voted on simultaneously, and each Vice-President shall write one name on the ballot, the four having the most votes shall be elected in successive order. Likewise, the four Board Secretaries below will be appointed. If there is a tie, a vote will be held again until the situation is resolved.
The Socialists would in all probability put forward another candidate from the four vice-presidential positions, but from there they would begin negotiations with the allied parties to apportion the remaining positions to which they could aspire, bearing in mind that PP and Vox would want representation. sIn addition, it was the winning party and could claim a monopoly on up to three positions without facilitating their vote for any Vox party candidate. After the 2015 elections that delivered a result similar to the current one, the People’s Party was left with three of those positions, Ciudadanos with two, Unidas Podemos with one and the PSOE taking only two of those positions, although one of them was the presidency of Paci López.
In these talks, there will be tasks for the position of Soumar, the party that is part of the Progressive coalition that seeks to continue in government, but it is also possible that the Socialist Socialist Party will support that some nationalist formations, such as the PNV or some Catalan independence parties, enter the new schedule to confirm that the representation of that body is greater and more similar to what happened in the opinion polls in 23-J. These contacts, however, have not yet begun.
What will happen from now on?
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The calendar contains a few closed dates. Once the election takes place on Sunday, these remain the steps to solidify:
- Final audit with CERA vote count. July 28th. The general examination takes place five days after the conclusion of the provisional examination, on election night, to include the so-called CERA vote or Spanish residents abroad. There are 2.3 million potential overseas voters. This count will start at 8 am on July 28th.
- Courts constitution. August 17th. The day and hour of the constituent session of the Congress and the Senate are fixed In the decree calling for the 23J elections: On August 17th at 10:00 am. On the same day, the age table is drawn up (with the two youngest and oldest members of parliament), the chamber table is elected, including who will head the councils, and all those elected are sworn in.
- query period. Aug 18th. The king, after receiving notification from the presidents of the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies of the formation of the two chambers, can begin the round of consultations with the leaders of the parties with the possibility of ruling whenever he wishes. Although you can begin contacting the parties the day after the Cortes actually meet to make way for the new legislature, there is no fixed date for the start of these consultations or a deadline for ending them.
- Opening of the Legislative Council. in the following 15 days. The Council’s regulations consider that within a period of 15 days after the constituent session, the official inaugural session of the legislature will be held. The king presides over it.
- A candidate standing for office. There is no date or deadline. By the time the king proposes a candidate for prime minister and the chosen one accepts (Mariano Rajoy rejected Felipe VI’s offer in 2016), he has to submit to the approval of the legislature.
- investment session. No estimated date. The President’s parliamentary inauguration begins with the proposed candidate’s speech before Congress, in which he “will present (…) the political program of the government which he intends to form and will ask the confidence of the Assembly.” There is no deadline or date for this act.
- The first vote. The day after the inaugural address. The first vote takes place the day after the speech of the candidate who needs an absolute majority in the House to be invested. If he succeeds, the king names him president. This law is fundamental, as can be read in Article 99.5 of the Spanish Constitution, because it activates the two-month period after which elections must be held.
- Second vote. 48 hours after the first vote. In the event that the proposed candidate does not obtain the support of an absolute majority of the Chamber, it must be submitted after 48 hours to the second, where a simple majority will suffice. This voting process can be repeated, but the term electoral repeat is only deactivated if a subsequent candidate gains the confidence of the House.
- Election call. Two months after the first ballot, an election is held. This is stated in Article 99.5 of the Basic Rule: “If no candidate has obtained the confidence of Congress after the expiration of a period of two months from the first vote for office, the King shall dissolve both Houses and call new elections with the consent of the President of Congress.” This Royal Decree is published in the Bank of England one day after its promulgation. This date is crucial, because the elections will be held in just 54 days.
- elections. 47 days after the call. The law estimates that you have to vote 47 days after the electoral summons decree is published, according to the seventh additional clause of the election law, which was introduced in 2016 for specific cases of repeat elections due to the impossibility of inauguration. Thus, if there is no candidate in office and the deadlines are the most pressing, Spaniards will return to voting in at least four or five months, although in 2016 the process dragged on for up to six months. In the current case, they will be in December of this year (when they played) or January 2024. Until then, Pedro Sanchez’s government will continue in office.
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