The Return of the Siege by Ivan Redondo

After two years of defeats came 23J. The electoral advance was born in a scenario of perversion without Plan A: the left winning votes and seats for the right. But the president had an alternative plan: blockade. The technical relationship, disastrous as in 2016, is now visible. Returning to the bus was as unattractive an idea as anticipating a blue summer with the Wagners almost in control of Moscow. With Russia today’s threats to Poland. And in this context, fear of PP-Vox conventions worked. There was significant resistance on the right and left against expectations. Fear again changed in his favor. Feijóo wins, but he won’t make it to Moncloa. Only Pedro Sanchez could do that with such an Italian parliament, but he would need Iontes to be sworn in. Carles Puigdemont Revival. He has the key. Obviously, there can be problems. Even Junts can drag ERC into negotiations. New elections cannot be ruled out because the blockade has won.

Politicians are insecure people. They tend to heed the “safe advice” when forgetting about their country. There is a lack of audacity in Spanish politics, but this time it was there. In this campaign, the president skipped those tips. He said: They are all red. So it was in the evidence of resistance. Pardon, for example, to deepen reunification in Catalonia, some considered a risk in 2021, but the result is incomprehensible without Salvador Illa’s PSC. Half a tie for you. The technical association between the left and their partners (171) and the right and their partners (171) is divided between the head and commander of the PSC.

Siege, jonts or new elections. And Princess Leonor has to swear the constitution in October

We said siege and it was a siege, although until last week the People’s Party had everything in its favour. Flash asked the cis for outgoing mail voting through July 12, including face-to-face voting. Almost no one paid attention to him, but he said loyalty to PP was 86% and conversions from PSOE 12.6%, from Vox 30% and from Cs 63%. something poetic. Kitchen wise has set up these forks: PP 148-161 seats, PSOE 108-115 and a tough bid between Vox and Sumar to go beyond 30 seats. Re-established numbers. Back to 1977: with two big parties and two medium parties. But you already know the results. Nothing to watch. What happened last week? Did Feijóo do well not to go into the debate? The 136-seat victory almost equals Rajoy’s victory in 2016 (137), the first election of the blockade.

Managing Moncloa is a political process that requires a lot of preparation and precision above ideologies or parties. Sanchez ran a very unorthodox campaign. More sets (16) than rallies (12), only 7 of the 52 contested provinces are visited, when you win you must kick yourself at least 30. The media talked more about truth or lies than about Spain. In a harsh tone on both sides. No trace of proposals for the future. But he managed to make Plan B work.

The Spaniards watched alongside Feijóo who doesn’t draw but that caught the attention of the Social Right as he wins Landmark 23-J: Head to Head. He thought he was going to be the guy who killed Liberty Valance in the debate and it looked like Sanchez killed Manolete. It doesn’t. and add? Magariños broke up space with 50 deputies predicting Podemos not really integrated. They started at the age of 38, but Irene Montero’s veto and her lack of teaching aids brought them down. Yolanda Diaz didn’t even raise her head to debate three days later, four days after D-Day and won at Horizon 30. Thanks to a dedicated Sánchez because, as in Vox’s failed recall motion, she was able to relaunch her Plan B. It was a huge success. This explains its final height, exceeding 30 seats and ensuring the viability of the platform. We’re glad.

What’s the worst mistake left up to that point? Sumar should not be a repeat PSOE player nor PSOE a Podemos 2. And they weren’t in the final phase of the campaign, they complemented each other and hit the mark: “Right, Yolanda? Yes, Pedro, but…” Saturday was the day of “How do you see it?”; On Sunday, “How are you?” Today, Monday, what happened? But the question is, “Now what?” Now Siege, Junts or new elections. It’s no joke and Princess Leonor has not yet sworn to the constitution. It was scheduled for October 31st. But the blockade returns.

next week

More blocking

Pedro Sanchez will have to train with low tension because he won the block. It will not be easy to find points of political and thematic support for his inauguration and for a legislature. But this is the Spain we are in. The parity between the blocs was practically in every way. PP improved their sounds better than PSOE. Lorig was on his side and won in 40 provinces. Almost absolute majority in the Senate. But Catalonia decided this election. it is. Catalonia always.

HawkEye

23-J is also Europe

Siege elections. once again. As in 2016. But at 23-J, the main debate was left off the field: Europe. The European Union first asked us for rapprochement in the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s, then austerity in 2010 and now it asks us for help in 2023. It needs Spain as a stabilizing factor in the face of the extreme right in Italy, with the second ultras in Germany and in France the “extreme center” trembles before them and without an alternative to Emmanuel Macron. The Spaniards saw it. I think so.