The three seats that can end up in the People’s Party by external vote

The People’s Party is waiting if a foreign recount, the so-called CERA vote, can allow them to add three more seats to their 136 deputies, one in Madrid they will get from the PSOE, one in Girona they will defeat Gones and one last seat in Cantabria from Fox.

Recount of votes for absent residents Sunday elections It is therefore key to governance and the distribution of blocs, because the PSOE could return to 121 seats if the People’s Party adds another seat in Madrid and Gones loses one of its seven representatives.

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With the existing distribution, PP (136) plus Vox (33) add up to 169, to which can be added UPN (1) and the Canary Islands Alliance (1), which, however, has concerns with Vox. This hypothetical and complex amount would amount to 171 seats, while the SWP (122) with its partners (31 from SUMAR, 7 from ERC, 6 from EH Bildu, 5 from PNV and 1 from BNG) would add 172 seats, one on top of the other bloc. Junts will hold the key to abstaining from the vote.

However, if the PP added the Madrid seat, and relying on this hypothetical amount, the bloc on the right would be placed at 172 and the bloc on the left at 171. In this scenario, the SWP would need a Yes Guntes and not just an abstention, as the Guntes could raise the price of their vote, even if the Popular holders could add the Girona MP they would get from Guntes. In this case, the potential sum of the space on the right could be as high as 173 compared to 171 for the SWP-led bloc.

At PP, they acknowledge that they are aware of how the last seats at stake are distributed, although sources in the leadership admit that it is not easy. According to popular sources, the People’s Party is 1,700 votes away from snatching a seat in Madrid from the Socialist Workers’ Party, a society in which the public achieved 40.51% of the vote and foreign votes are too many, with 375,602 voters called to the polls. This is the most likely seat because in this autonomy the popular seats clearly prevail.

In Cantabria, the People’s Party will be 428 votes away from taking a seat from Vox, although in this case the blocs will not move. There are 41,182 external voters in this community.

Finally, the Popular Vote counts on 363 votes for a seat from Junts per Catalunya in Girona, where the People’s Party currently has no representative and overseas electors reach 23,993.

The CERA vote will begin to be counted from Friday, when the regional electoral boards finish the general scrutiny of votes by including ballot papers of the 2.3 million Spaniards residing in other countries and registered in the census of residents absentee abroad (CERA).