What happens tonight in Valencian society will have an important weight in the electoral outcome of this general election. The Valencian community elects 33 deputies (5 for Castellón, 16 for Valencia and 12 for Alicante) and there are many questions that gain strength in this geography. Will the government agreements reached with Vox in the Generalitat Valenciana and in important city halls such as the Elx or Torrent influence PP in favor of the PSPV? Will the People’s Party succeed in approaching or exceeding the one million votes it achieved in the general elections during five consecutive appeals (from 1996 to 2011) and thus consolidate the victory of Alberto Núñez Figo? Will Combromice’s alliance with Soumar help the Valencia project to improve its visibility in Congress despite the collapse and disappearance of Bodim in Valencia?
These are just a few of the questions that will be answered tonight that will determine whether the change of course achieved by the Right in 28-M in the Valencian Community has continuity and is consolidated in 23-J. The resounding victory of the People’s Party, whose list is headed by Esteban González Pons, would confirm the strength of popularity in Valencian society after having two legislative chambers in opposition, and would exacerbate the desert flight of the left, which lost all the main institutions a few weeks ago. The latest was the Valencia Provincial Council in a vote that left the socialist mayors impressed (and annoyed) and left Mazón with near-absolute power, as under Eduardo Zaplana and Francisco Camp.
This Sunday, the right can witness the change of course and the increasing depression of the left Valencia
Quite the contrary, if PSPV and Compromís-Sumar improve proportionately the results of the past 28-M, the political fight will have another intensity in this geography of Valencia in the coming weeks, although it will not work to undo the path offered by PP and Vox in the Valencian community. In general, the outcome of the night will have a significant impact on the mood of the Valencian parties.
The People’s Party of the last days turned upside down in the Valencian community. The party led by Figo knows exactly what is at stake. In the 2019 general election, he received only 584,000 votes, compared to the 1,390,000 he received in 2011; 53.9% of the vote and the second best result in history in absolute terms. In the last regional elections (less than two months ago) the People’s Party exceeded 880,000 votes because, among other factors, it managed to get a large portion of Ciudadanos’ votes. Now, the majority of the 37,000 who still trust oranges (the Cs don’t appear in the general election), have all the numbers to join the popular vote draw.
In the average of the polls, the People’s Party stands at around 34% and bearing in mind that in Valencian society, in a general election scenario (and even more so in the context of beneficial votes), popular votes improve regional vote numbers, reaching 40% of the vote (that long-awaited million votes) is not an impossible challenge.
As indicated by this newspaper, the PSOE also behaves better in general elections, where its direct competitor – Compromís – is located. The Socialist List has options to improve on the 708,142 votes that Ximo Puig received on March 28. Best number in some regions since 2007 for Fist and Rose.
This time Compromís again has a partner with a presumptive withdrawal of the state – at least Soumar has had a leading role in the discussions and has options to compete with Vox for third place – which could allow Valencia supporters to fight this advantageous vote. The truth is that after the agreement of the century and with Podem not actively participating in the coalition, the first weeks of concessions in the opposition were not easy.
Vox, which also behaves better on stage, risks seeing how a part of its electorate is tempted to help Feijóo obtain a more solid majority.
However, besides contributing to the country score for each formation in the three constituencies (Castellón, Valencia and Alicante), 23-J will define the new Spanish political map. From now on, two things can happen (if there is no institutional blockade): that the new president of Valencia, Carlos Mazon has an ally in La Moncloa – another thing would be the degree of compliance with Valencia’s demands – or that the socialists retain power.
This second scenario would certainly generate tensions between the two governments, as we have always seen that the political colors of the Government of Spain and the Council of Valencia did not coincide. And that key, in Valencia’s agenda full of claims, grievances and pending projects, is also at stake on Sunday.
23-J in the data
3.7 million Valencians were called to the polls
A total of 3.7 million Valencians will be able to exercise their right to vote on Sunday – many of whom have already done so by mail, since the election date coincides with the holiday period -, of which 3.6 million reside in the community and 126,621 Valencians reside abroad.
The increase in population experienced by the Valencian Community since the November 2019 general elections allows for the election of one more deputy on this occasion than then: there are 16 for the province of Valencia (one more), 12 for the province of Alicante and 5 for Castellón, while the senators remain at 12 (4 per province).